My middle ds rarely missed any of his HOD spelling words, but the difficulty for him was more writing 3 of his spelling words in sentences each week. My middle ds was not an early writer, and he needed 2 years of the spelling skills taught in HOD, utilizing first List 1 and then List 2, to be prepared for dictation. In contrast, my oldest ds was an early writer, and he only did Spelling List 2. He was then ready for dictation after just one year of learning the spelling skills along with doing List 2.
So, as HOD's spelling has its own flow of instruction and runs seamlessly wherever you are in the guides, I would consider your ds's writing skills. If his spelling individual words is way ahead of his writing several complete sentences, then 2 years of spelling skill instruction utilizing first List 1 and then List 2 would be good. But, if his writing several sentences is quite easy for him, and he would soon be ready for dictation by the close of the year, then doing List 2 instead would be good. If you complete List 2 this year, you are in essence saying ds will be ready for dictation level 2 next year. Here is a link to some dictation samples, so you can see the skills required to begin dictation...
Dictation Samples:
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1221
I think it is important for dc to do at least one entire year of spelling instruction to be ready for dictation. You could do 1 1/2 years by moving ahead some units in List 1. Or, you could do 2 years of instruction if you think that will be the best pacing for him. I hope I haven't been confusing here - but those were some thoughts I had. I hope something here can help!
In Christ,
Julie