I don't know from a long term stand point.
I know that I tried phonics with my oldest and it was awful. When I stopped doing phonics with her because literally every lesson was ending up with us both in tears (I thought she was just not ready) she took off with reading! Now, she's not an overly STRONG reader and she doesn't particularly LOVE reading, but she's probably at a 6th grade level? She can read the Bible pretty fluently, but she's fairly familiar with how it flows. She can just simply read the words in nearly anything, but understanding isn't there with higher than roughly 6th grade books. However that is quickly increasing.
My second, I started with phonics and it went smoothly. Then we took a break, I can't remember now why... maybe Christmas? And she started reading in that time. She flew through the ERs and is now doing DITHOR very easily with the level 2 books... so close to a 3.5-4 reading level. She really enjoys reading, though she still doesn't see it as something to do for fun

That is coming too with DITHOR. But her reading level is pretty consistently rising as well.
My third, I never got the chance to start phonics... I planned to, but she started reading before I did

She just took off. She's 6, just started reading in the fall, and is reading through the ERs with no trouble at all. The only time I have to correct her is if she accidentally skips a line or goes back to the same line (tracking trouble if her sisters bother her). She would be much farther through them if 1.)I remembered to do them daily and 2.)If I let her go at her own pace instead of what the guide says. I'd say she's got about a 2.5-3 reading level.
Honestly, I haven't seen a difference in my kids' reading and the kids they know who have done extensive phonics (for their ages). In fact, they have a better grasp of what they are reading because they aren't thinking about it. Way better comprehension.
Now that could just be the differences there would be no matter what the way they learned to read. I don't know. But I do know that NOT doing phonics saved a good bit of relationship with my oldest. And it hasn't mattered at all with my third.